WARNING FOR BOTH PARTIES – AT 8:08 A.M. ET:  "A plague on both your houses" seems to be the message of the American people in a new Washington Post/ABC poll.  As we traditionally point out, a poll is a snapshot in time, or even less than that, and results will vary as we approach the 2012 election.

But we note that rising dissatisfaction with President Obama is not being matched by any great enthusiasm for the Republican Party, as a party.  The story: 

More than a third of Americans now believe that President Obama’s policies are hurting the economy, and confidence in his ability to create jobs is sharply eroding among his base, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

But Americans’ discontent does not stop there. The survey also found that Americans harbor negative feelings toward congressional Republicans. Roughly as many people blame Republican policies for the poor economy as they do Obama. But 65 percent disapprove of the GOP’s handling of jobs, compared to 52 percent for the president.

The dissatisfaction is fueled by the fact that many Americans continue to see little relief from the pain of a recession that technically ended two years ago. Ninety percent of those surveyed said the economy is not doing well, and four out of five report that jobs are difficult to find. In interviews, several people said that they feel abandoned by both parties, particularly as debates over the debt ceiling gridlock Washington.

COMMENT:  If there's a lesson here, it's that Republican success in 2012 must be based on the choice of a solid, stirring candidate who will not run simply as "the Republican."  Michele Bachmann, whose political acumen should not be underestimated, constantly distances herself from the Republican establishment.  I think you'll see that with Rick Perry as well, once he enters the fray. 

Please remember that Ronald Reagan was not overwhelmingly popular with establishment Republicans, who tried to burden him with former President Gerald Ford as the vice presidential candidate in 1980.  Some establishment types boosted the idea of a "co-presidency" because they didn't trust Reagan, and had bought into the fiction that he was a loose cannon. 

One problem with Romney is that he comes off as the consummate establishment guy, right down to the preppy clothing and neat haircut.  I would look for a GOP primary battle in which the more astute candidates will try to stress their independence.  And they'd be right.

July 26, 2011